Dropshipping to Europe from China: routes, VAT, and delivery times

Dropshipping to Europe from China works the same way it does anywhere else. You still need to solve three things: how long the parcel takes, who collects the VAT, and who pays duty. Delivery to most EU countries runs about the same window, VAT is handled through the IOSS scheme for orders under 150 euros, and from July 2026 a new flat duty applies on top of that. Get these three right per country and the rest of the setup barely changes.

This guide is for Shopify merchants already dropshipping or fulfilling from China who are opening up EU countries, or who already sell there and want to know what the July 2026 customs change actually costs them.

Delivery times across EU countries

Most guides treat "Europe" as one country and quote a single number. In practice, a parcel from a China warehouse reaches Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the Nordics in roughly the same window because they sit on the same major air and rail freight lanes into the EU. Southern and Eastern Europe, and countries further from the main hubs, tend to sit at the slower end of that window.

We ship worldwide, including across North America, Europe, and Australia, and orders leave our warehouse within 24 hours of the order reaching us. For EU destinations, that puts most orders in a 5 to 12 day delivery window door to door, with the country mattering less than which carrier line and customs lane the parcel travels. For the fuller picture on transit times out of China, see how long shipping from China actually takes.

What moves a parcel from the fast end to the slow end of that window is rarely the country itself. It is usually one of these:

• Whether the parcel clears customs under IOSS (fast) or waits for a manual VAT assessment at the border (slow)
• Whether the destination has a direct line into the EU or the parcel is routed through a hub country first
• Local last mile capacity during peak shopping periods

A store selling into Germany, France, and Poland from the same China warehouse can expect similar average delivery times across all three, with occasional swings around holidays or during a carrier's peak season.

Direct from China vs. stock in Europe

There are two ways to serve EU buyers: ship every order from China, or hold inventory somewhere inside the EU and ship locally from there.

Shipping direct from China keeps your setup simple. One warehouse, no reorder planning per country, and no cash tied up in stock that might not sell. The tradeoff is the delivery window above, plus VAT and duty on every parcel that crosses the border.

Holding stock inside the EU cuts delivery time to a day or two once the order is placed, because the parcel never leaves the customs union. It also means duty and import VAT were already paid once, in bulk, when the stock arrived, rather than per parcel. The tradeoff is working capital: you are buying and holding inventory before you know exactly what will sell, and you need a warehouse partner or your own storage inside the EU.

As an example, a store selling a 9 dollar phone accessory at 40 orders a day into the EU might find that shipping direct from China keeps cost per order lower, because the product value is small enough that duty and VAT stay minor. A store selling a 60 dollar tested bestseller at similar volume often does better holding stock in Europe, because the fixed cost of storage gets spread across a higher priced item, and the faster delivery reduces returns and chargebacks.

We currently ship every order from our China warehouse. For a proven product, we can also hold stock in the US for domestic delivery there. If your product justifies EU stock specifically, treat that as a separate, later decision once China-direct fulfillment has proven the product sells.

VAT and IOSS without the jargon

Every order you ship into the EU owes VAT somewhere. The only question is who collects it and when.

For orders with a goods value up to 150 euros, the Import One-Stop Shop, usually called IOSS, lets you or your fulfillment partner collect VAT at checkout and pay it to the EU in one monthly filing. The customer sees VAT included in the price they paid, the parcel is marked as VAT paid, and it clears the border without a surprise bill waiting for the customer at delivery.

Without IOSS, VAT gets collected at the border instead. The carrier or postal service charges the customer VAT, plus often a handling fee, before releasing the parcel. This is where refused parcels and support tickets come from: a customer who already paid at checkout gets asked to pay again at the door, assumes it is a scam, and refuses delivery.

The 150 euro figure is based on the value of the goods only. Shipping cost, insurance, and any separately listed fees do not count toward it, as long as they appear as separate line items on the invoice.

Two mistakes show up constantly in support inboxes:

Assuming the supplier or agent automatically handles VAT. Some do, most do not unless you have specifically confirmed it as part of the fulfillment setup.

Registering for the wrong scheme. The One-Stop Shop, OSS, covers goods already sitting inside the EU when sold. IOSS covers goods imported from outside the EU at the point of sale. Mixing these up means VAT gets filed under the wrong scheme, or not at all.

The new EU customs duty on top of VAT

VAT is not the only charge changing. In December 2025 the Council of the EU agreed to end the long standing exemption that lets goods valued under 150 euros enter with no customs duty. From 1 July 2026, a flat 3 euro duty will apply to each different item category in a parcel, based on its tariff classification. It covers sellers registered for IOSS and is set as a temporary measure until July 2028.

From that date, the duty applies even when the goods value sits under 150 euros. Duty and VAT will be calculated separately: VAT will still be handled the way it always is under IOSS, and the new duty will be charged in addition to it, not instead of it.

Because the duty is planned as a flat amount rather than a percentage, it will land hardest on lower priced items. A 5 dollar product would absorb the same flat charge as a 50 dollar one, so the duty would take a much bigger share of margin on cheap items than on higher priced ones. Bundling multiple items from the same product category into one parcel, rather than shipping single item orders across many categories, is one of the more direct ways to reduce how often that flat charge applies once it takes effect.

Treat any specific cost estimate here as provisional until the EU publishes its final implementing guidance. We covered the exemption removal itself in more detail in EU customs in 2026: the end of the 150 euro exemption, and you can check your current landed cost per country with our product sourcing and landed cost calculator.

Returns inside the EU

Returns are the part of EU expansion most stores plan for last. A buyer in France returning a product to a China warehouse faces a return shipping cost that often exceeds the value of a low priced item, which is why most China-fulfilled stores handle EU returns as a refund without asking for the item back, rather than a physical return.

That works for cheap, low margin items. It works less well as your average order value climbs, because refunding a 60 dollar order without a return costs real margin. At that point, some stores set a return threshold: refund without return under a set order value, and require the item back only above it. Others hold a small batch of return-friendly inventory inside the EU once volume justifies it.

Whichever model you pick, say it clearly on your returns page before a customer emails asking. A published policy avoids most of the "do I need to send it back" tickets on its own.

Which setup fits your order volume

The right EU setup mostly comes down to how many orders you are actually shipping there, not how big the market looks on paper.

• Testing a new EU market, under roughly 10 to 15 orders a day: ship direct from China, register for IOSS, and do not build EU-specific returns handling yet. Refund without return for anything under about 20 dollars.
• A validated product, 20 to 50 orders a day into one or two EU countries: keep shipping from China, but tighten your product catalog so most orders ship as a single customs category to limit how often the new flat duty stacks per parcel.
• A proven bestseller doing 50 or more orders a day into the EU: this is where holding stock somewhere inside the EU starts to pay for itself, because delivery time drops and duty is paid once on the bulk shipment instead of per parcel.

These are examples to reason from, not fixed rules. The number that actually matters is your margin per order after VAT and the new duty, at your real order volume.

Common mistakes

Treating "Europe" as one delivery estimate. Most EU countries land in a similar delivery window from a China warehouse, but a few sit further from the main freight lanes and consistently run slower. Check actual tracking data for your specific destinations rather than assuming.

Skipping IOSS registration because volume feels small. A handful of refused parcels and support tickets from surprise VAT bills at the door costs more in refunds and bad reviews than registering would have.

Assuming the new customs duty replaces VAT. It does not. The flat duty expected from 1 July 2026 would be charged in addition to VAT, not instead of it.

Ignoring returns until the first one arrives. Decide your refund-without-return threshold before you launch in a new EU country, not after the first angry email.

Frequently asked questions

Do I need to register for IOSS if I only sell a few orders a week into the EU?

Yes, if any of those orders are imported goods valued under 150 euros. IOSS is not tied to a minimum order volume. Without it, your customers face VAT collection at the border instead of at checkout.

Does the new EU customs duty apply to orders that already went through in 2025?

No. The duty is scheduled to take effect on 1 July 2026 and would apply from that date forward. Orders that clear customs before then are not affected.

Will the EU duty replace the 150 euro VAT threshold?

No. The IOSS VAT rules for goods under 150 euros continue to apply. The new flat duty, once in effect, is a separate charge added on top of VAT, not a replacement for it.

Is it cheaper to hold stock in Europe than to ship every order from China?

It depends on order volume and product value. For a smaller number of orders per day, shipping direct from China usually costs less overall once you account for holding inventory and warehouse fees inside the EU. Higher volume, higher priced products tend to favor EU stock instead.

What happens if a customer refuses a parcel over an unexpected VAT or duty charge?

The parcel is typically returned to the sender or destroyed at the border, and the shipping cost is not recovered. This is the strongest reason to register for IOSS and price the new duty into your product before you launch, rather than after.

Getting your EU numbers right before you launch

None of this needs to be complicated. Confirm your IOSS registration, know your delivery window for the specific countries you are targeting, and price the expected flat duty into your margin before it takes effect rather than after. The stores that get burned by EU expansion are usually the ones that treated it as an afterthought to their existing China setup rather than a market with its own VAT and customs rules.

If you want a landed price and delivery estimate for the EU countries you are targeting, get a quote and we will walk through the numbers with you.